In another high-profile ‘insider attack’ in Afghanistan, on October 18 a suspected Taliban gunman targeted a meeting of the senior US and Afghan officials in Kandahar. The attack virtually wiped out the province’s political and security leadership including the governor, Zalmai Wessa, Intelligence Chief, Gen Abdul Momin Hassankhail, and most importantly the Police Chief Lt Gen Abdul Raziq, considered as the most powerful anti-Taliban official in southern Afghanistan.  

         The Afghan Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, but Afghan authorities quickly pointed out the attackers’ Pakistani connections. The head of the Afghan Intelligence, National Directorate of Security (NDS), Masoom Stanekzai stated that minutes before the attack, the plotters had received a call from “across the border”, giving the instruction – a pattern witnessed in previous attacks also.   

         The attack in Kandahar came day before the national parliamentary elections which took place on October 20, witnessing a voter turnout of 4 million. The Taliban had threatened to severely disrupt the elections and had warned the common Afghans of perpetuating a ‘puppet’ government propped up by the US. The polls in Kandahar meanwhile had been postponed for a week on account of the attack.

         Lt Gen Raziq was a man with chequered record. He had picked up gun against Taliban after loosing a large number of his family members in the violence by Taliban. In the last few years he had emerged as one of the most important security officials in Afghanistan, having been felicitated for leading from the front the fight against the Taliban in their stronghold. Kandahar is the birthplace of Taliban. Gen Raziq’s strong tactics brought normalcy in southern Afghanistan, but human rights organisations accused him of human rights violations and corruption. The UN too had called for his prosecution for his alleged torture and enforced disappearances. The government in Kabul had found it difficult to rein in Lt Gen Raziq, but gave him the leeway in crushing the Taliban. That had actually made him the top targetS of Taliban and their handlers across the border. In fact, Lt Gen Raziq has survived numerous earlier assassination bids and attacks.

         With Lt Gen Raziq’s killing, the US has begun exercising caution and has halted most face-to-face contacts with members of the Afghan security forces, and has temporarily withdrawn from the Afghan security facilities – a move which will significantly benefit the Taliban to regain territorial control at many places.  This is certainly tactical benefit for Taliban, but also a significant gain for its master in Pakistan and its designs in Afghanistan. Those who have seen the venom-spewing social media accounts close to Pakistan Army and some Urdu dailies in Pakistan, would find their commentaries on Lt Gen Raziq’s killing, not only nauseating but prejudicial towards a possibility of rapprochement between the two neighbours.

         Now with Lt Gen Raziq gone, there is now a vacuum of security leadership in Kandahar and Southern Afghanistan as any replacement of him will find it difficult to command the same authority from his deputies. That will give enough breathing space for the Afghan Taliban, to recoup in the winter ahead. More importantly, it gives enough battlefield advantage for the Taliban in the south, particularly as it is wooed by the US for a negotiated political settlement. If the Taliban is able to dictate the terms of such a settlement, it would directly contribute to Islamabad’s ultimate goal of setting a ‘friendly’ regime in Kabul and increasing its relevance as a stake holder in Afghan affairs.      

         Pakistan continues to view the Afghan Taliban as an important proxy to exert its political influence in Afghanistan. The new government in Islamabad has in fact sought to put a positive spin on its support and argued that Pakistan’s ties to Taliban can facilitate the end of hostilities in Afghanistan, while keeping intact the terrorists’ safe havens and infrastructure on its territory for all the time. Significantly, if the next year’s presidential elections are postponed due to the worsening security situation in Afghanistan, it would not only spark a legitimacy crisis in Kabul but also be a huge PR boost for Pakistan Taliban.

         Pakistan always perceives the current government led by President Ashraf Ghani, has been acting against its interests and therefore will try and trick up its sleeve to undermine its credibility and consequently Afghanistan’s stability. Gen Raziq’s killing therefore represents an important victory for Islamabad, on which it will seek to build on to cause further violence and instability on its neighbour’s territory. An emboldened Taliban with Pakistan’s backing will certainly now gear up its game to queer the pitch. But simultaneously, this kind of assassination attempts on senior Afghan officials would also make Pakistan’s machinations in Afghanistan,                 increasingly comprehensible to international community.