Nawaz Sharif and Donald Trump
The tweet of the most qualified candidate for the world prize 'Chance the Gardener' (genius stupid, stupidly brilliant and so forth declining stupidity and genius) has fallen like a bomb on the brains still clouded by the first night's tales of Pakistanis, Indians, Afghans and Chinese. Who made jump on their chair or on the bed, depending on the time, the members of the American administration, Congress and the Pentagon because, as usual, Trump had not bothered to discuss in advance with any of them the ideas born during the night. After a couple of days when Americans and Pakistanis continued to talk to each other through tweets, the official announcement came: the United States announced the suspension of all military aid to Pakistan, about $ 1.3 billion the year. Not only that: Pakistan has been included in a special watch list of countries at risk for religious freedom. The provision of funds for security and the fight against terrorism, including the substantial Coalition Support Fund, will probably be subordinated to the achievement of specific objectives determined from time to time by Washington. The first, capturing by January twenty-five members of the Haqqani network has been largely disregarded. The Pakistani reactions were the same as ever: high cries of pain not to be fully understood by an unreliable ally (the US) and because the whole world underestimates the price in terms of human lives that Islamabad has had to pay for the fight against terrorism. Terrorism created in large part by Islamabad itself, but these are details. In fact, the Pakistanis worry very little: the game of the stick and the carrot have been used for fifteen years, and this play has been staged many times. In general, the situation, from Musharraf onwards, has always been resolved by handing over Washington to a couple of bearded sheepdies looking more ferocious than others labeled as 'Taliban leaders' and providing very little or no practical intelligence. And it is not likely that things will change unless Trump and his do not intend to implement a serious strategy and that the tweet of the commander in chief does a coherent action that also takes into account the long run. Because in the short term, if the White House keeps the point and really intends to put Pakistan to the tight, things can only get worse. Islamabad becomes stronger in its relations with the United States of a couple of things: the possibility of closing, as has already happened in the past, the access routes by land necessary to bring supplies for troops engaged in Afghanistan. If Trump is not in the grip of Iran, which is incidentally a much smaller danger than Pakistan, the Americans could use the port built by the Inda Chabahar. At the moment, the only alternative, already used in the past, would be an airlift. The other trump card in Islamabad is shared intelligence and the great fear of the bomb. Washington and the Pentagon delude themselves, maintaining more or less good relations with Islamabad, of having a sort of control over the Pakistani nuclear system. It is not true, but it is the reason why the Pentagon made sure that the Lashkar-i-Toiba was removed from the list of conditions necessary to obtain the above loans. The United States focuses only on Afghanistan and insist on the Haqqani as its primary objective, without realizing that the Haqqani, like the Taliban and Lashkar-i-Toiba adherence, have never and never had a global strategy of terror. In the short term, things can only get worse: Pakistan becomes stronger that in Washington and its surroundings it is considered too dangerous to put Islamabad in a tight spot. And indeed now, more than ever, the Pakistani army and services will be holding their 'strategic assets' tight: Haqqani, Lashkar-i-Toiba and fellow snacks. The other big fear is red, China. Which has immediately sided with Pakistan, but at this point is in a rather uncomfortable situation. Beijing has focused very much on Islamabad, but has no intention of seeing its investments endangered by fanatical jihadi and pieces of services out of control. On the other hand, despite Islamabad declaring that 'we are not alone' to face America, Chinese aid generally costs a price very high: in financial terms, first of all, and in terms of the unpopularity of any party in power. Chinese investments and infrastructure bring jobs and benefits only to the Chinese themselves, while local populations are 'evacuated' with more or less legitimate means and are watching. In a very short time, Pakistan, tied hands and feet to China, may have to choose between its own de facto sovereignty and its descent to milder advice to the West. Meanwhile, the diplomatic channels have been frantically activated to leverage the Saudis, who are on excellent terms with Trump and who act as the kingmaker in Pakistani domestic politics: it is not said, however, that the Arabs are willing to spend too much to get out of trouble Islamabad. For this reason, some American analysts insist that the funds provided by the IMF and the World Bank are also frozen: it could be the only means available to convince Islamabad. Could. Because, as a famous Pakistani analyst once said, `There is nothing rational in Pakistan`. As in the White House right now, after all. Which may not be bad: after years of theater fassions played between Pakistan and the US following well-established patterns of thought and behavior and known to all players, someone breaks the mold and blows the bank. If the White House really intends to put in place a 'new strategy', it will be seen in the coming months. Meanwhile, India and Afghanistan are preparing for the worst and are waiting for a new wave of terrorist attacks.
