Pakistan is tightening its embrace of Saudi Arabia for money, and influence in the Muslim world. And the House of Saud is firming up its grip as the final arbitrator of disputes between the army and the political executive in the land of the pure. Yet, the Iranian leadership is walking the extra mile to woo the brotherly Muslim nation. And it makes the Iran-Pakistan relations become curiouser and curiouser with every passing day.

Teheran was the first to recognise Pakistan as it was carved out of British India in 1947. (India and Iran established diplomatic relations in 1950). The two countries benefit from the waters of two rivers - the Dasht and Kech Rivers, which also separate them in a manner of speaking. The people on either side of the border are Balochis. Militants operating from Pakistani soil have been creating a mayhem in the Iran border region. Teheran accuses the US of funding and arming them, and Pakistan of harbouring them. 

Balochis living in Pakistan’s Balochistan province feel neglected and exploited unlike their counterparts in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province.  Balochistan is the richest Pakistani province in terms of natural wealth – namely coal, minerals, and natural gas but is benefited the least by the nature’s bounty.  The villages in the region, where gas is exploited,still sleep in darkness after sunset though the Balochistan gas been lighting homes and running industries in the Punjab province- the richest and most influential of the four provinces in Pakistan.

Balochistan is in the headlines these days for Gwadar, a sleepy fishermen hamlet, where the Chinese have built a massive deep-sea port, and are linking it with their North-western Xinjiang province by laying a massive corridor through Pakistan. This China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the first of many Road and Belt initiatives planned by President Xi Jinping to place China on the super power highway.

Across the border in Iran, at a distance of some 150 km from Gwadar is Chabahar, where India is developing a gateway to Afghanistan,and beyond.The Iranian port is just outside of the Gulf of Hormuz which is one of the busiest shipping lanes of the world.  And it helps India to by-pass Pakistani territory for Afghan and Central Asia bound cargo,while offering a new narrative to China’s growing presence in the region.  

New Delhi has plans invest $ 20bn on Chabahar. It has already committed $500m, and is engaged in discussions with the Iranians on building a rail link from Chabahar to Zahedan where Iran meets Afghanistan. The railway line will aid the transport of goods right up to the Afghan border. 

During President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to India in February, railway officials of the two countries “were tasked to finalise the technical parameters and financing options for the project in a time bound manner”, as also “greater efforts for cooperation in railway sector including supply of steel rails, turnouts and locomotives.”A joint statement issued at the end of the three-day visit also said: “The Iranian side expressed its readiness to enhance enabling environment to attract Indian private and or public sector investments, in Chabahar FTZ (free trade zone)”. It is elementary to say therefore that what Gwadar is for China, Chabahar is to India in trade terms.

Yet, the Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif Khonsari surprised his hosts in Islamabad, during a March visit, by inviting China and Pakistan to join the Chabahar project.  No rational explanation is forthcoming from the foreign office in Teheran for the Zarif gesture (or gaffe?).  He is a career diplomat and an academic, and as such he cannot be deemed to be in the mode of the 16th century George Ruggle’s Ignoramus. Moreover he hails from an “affluent, religiously devout and politically conservative merchant family”, as the Wikipedia tells the uninitiated. 

It is possible that Zarif was hoping to win over the Pakistan as a market for Iranian goods, and to soften the Pakistani stand on laying a gas pipe line between the two countries. The pipeline project was conceived two decades ago. It was designed to be extended to India as well. While India had backed out owing to its strategic concerns after showing some interest, Pakistan cold storage it due to a host of factors that range from funds crunch to fear of antagonizing the Americans and the Saudis alike. 

Iran has already completed its section of the pipeline from the South Pars field in the south-west of the country to Pakistani border to deliver 1.5 million cubic meters (mcm) of natural gas per day.On the Pakistan side, the pipeline remains a pipe dream. More than a year ago, Iran had offered to lay the pipeline inside Pakistan; the offer has met with no response.  A few weeks ago, Teheran has threatened to slap penalties and drag Islamabad to arbitration. The threat too met with deafening silence. 

Now Zarif’s goodwill gesture too has met the same fate.There was no news about any immediate acceptance of the Iranian offer by China either. It is possible that Beijing may join some works related with Chabahar port like rail line from the port to the Iranian hinterland. Any such move would be in the hope of safeguarding its interest at Gwadar.  Anyhow China is not new to Iran; both have forged close economic, diplomatic and strategic ties.

Pakistan’s relations with Iran, like its ties with India are uni-directional. Terrorism is at the core of Pakistani diplomacy with these two countries.  From petrol and diesel to food items, everything in the Iranian export basket is freely available in Pakistan all the way from the border post to the federal capital thanks to open patronage smuggling enjoys in the country.So, Pakistani military and civilian leadership have no incentive to step up official trade with Iran. Otherwise they could have given the go ahead for opening banking channels, which Iran has been pressing for a long while.

From what is in public domain, Chabahar will not be competing with Gwadar, since their orientation, as pointed out at the outset is different.  Pakistan is aware of this truism despite its India obsession. Moreover, where is the money to spare for Chabahar when it is knocking at the doors of Saudi Arabia for a hefty foreign exchange bail out after taking a $ 1bn soft loan from its all-weather friend to tide over the unfolding fiscal crisis. 

Well, China may like to become a part of Chabahar success story since its Pakistani venture, CPEC will take long years to realise its full potential. Right now China focus is not outbound. President Xi Jinping is engaged in getting a grip over domestic economy, which, according to media reports, is not in the pink of health. So, it is difficult to visualise any Chinese rush to grab Zarif’s invite. It may materialise over time, though.

There is an Afghan factor at play in Chabahar that is not to the liking of Pakistan. 

Firstly, Iran has deep ties to Afghanistan. Most Dari-speaking Afghans are closer to Iran than Pakistan. They constitute fifty percent of the population. The other major language in Afghanistan is Pasto, which is also the second largest regional language of Pakistan spoken mostly in the areas close to Afghan border. While Pasto is known as an Eastern Iranian language, the dominant  Dari is a derivate of Persian, the national language of Iran. Many Afghans do not like to term their language as Dari. For them their lingo is Farsi (Persian) and the term Dari has been “forced” on them by the dominant Pashtun ethnic group “in their attempt to distance Afghans from their cultural, linguistic, and historical ties to the Persian-speaking world.”   

Secondly, Iran will not like to commit a self-goal by discouraging trade activity at Chabahar in order to please Pakistan, which, as it knows, is at the best of times a dubious ally. For Iran, emerging out of N sanctions, Chabahar is a life-line that needs to be nurtured.

Even the Americans have to think twice before holding out any threat to Chabahar since they are also keen that Afghanistan manages to survive the crippling effects of trade blockade Pakistan regularly imposes on its neighbour. India’s trade with Afghanistan through Chabahar is bound to grow. So is its trade volumes with Central Asian nations.

Making Chabahar a hostage to Pakistani plans will in essence restrict, if not block out, Iran on the Afghan theatre.Iran knows what is best to its national interest and what cements its role as a regional player. Iran is a land of ancient civilisation. Unlike Pakistan, which has disowned its heritage (since it has to share with India), and has adopted Wahabbism which has given rise to al Qaeda and ISIS brands of global terrorism!

It is possible that Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was no more than a PR gesture. The jury is out, anyhow!